* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952020 08/15/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 48 61 74 86 98 105 106 103 102 94 86 79 71 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 48 61 74 86 98 105 106 103 102 94 86 79 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 36 44 54 68 86 103 107 103 92 77 61 49 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 11 7 7 3 4 7 3 8 8 9 7 9 10 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 3 0 0 -2 0 -2 -1 2 6 9 7 11 4 SHEAR DIR 119 113 74 61 35 54 86 88 126 142 206 165 172 183 199 188 192 SST (C) 28.0 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.9 30.1 30.9 29.3 29.1 28.1 27.0 25.4 23.9 22.2 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 155 154 156 160 161 166 168 173 159 156 146 135 119 103 85 74 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -53.1 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -52.3 -51.1 -51.4 -50.5 -50.5 -50.1 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 5 4 8 7 10 7 9 5 5 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 79 81 80 79 81 80 81 82 79 74 65 60 54 58 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 16 19 20 22 26 29 31 29 31 27 24 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 75 67 57 44 41 35 25 24 25 63 64 87 50 33 54 33 29 200 MB DIV 127 132 123 123 134 134 99 117 91 125 89 53 7 0 -7 11 10 700-850 TADV 2 0 -3 -1 -2 3 -2 -7 -5 0 1 -3 -10 4 -2 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 404 470 489 515 555 500 440 389 290 208 240 119 101 192 275 437 546 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.4 11.4 12.6 14.2 16.1 18.2 20.3 21.9 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.2 91.7 92.9 94.0 95.2 97.8 100.2 102.7 104.8 106.5 108.0 109.6 111.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 13 11 12 13 14 14 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 12 10 11 14 17 35 42 35 22 13 8 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 39. 40. 40. 39. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 22. 26. 28. 25. 24. 18. 13. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 23. 36. 49. 61. 73. 80. 81. 78. 77. 69. 61. 54. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 90.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952020 INVEST 08/15/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.59 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.83 7.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -6.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.31 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 42% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.8% 26.9% 0.0% 0.0% 25.4% 41.6% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 58.7% 40.4% 27.2% 7.1% 65.1% 84.1% 86.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.8% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% 1.4% 4.3% 26.8% Consensus: 2.4% 30.4% 23.3% 9.2% 2.4% 30.6% 43.3% 37.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952020 INVEST 08/15/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##