* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952020 06/29/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 32 29 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 32 29 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 11 19 23 24 30 35 42 44 44 49 39 39 22 23 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -2 -1 1 -4 1 -3 0 -6 -3 -6 -5 -3 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 235 255 255 236 231 236 221 221 215 224 223 233 244 259 279 297 287 SST (C) 27.1 25.8 25.0 23.9 23.1 22.1 21.5 21.1 20.8 25.3 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 122 114 102 93 82 75 71 69 117 136 137 137 136 134 131 127 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 4 1 1 0 3 0 5 1 6 4 7 5 8 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 63 61 56 50 48 43 43 42 43 44 42 47 42 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 15 14 13 12 10 7 6 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -5 -14 -17 -9 2 14 10 18 8 4 16 -21 -23 -40 -26 -11 200 MB DIV 93 78 31 18 15 9 19 13 22 10 37 40 33 12 13 -12 1 700-850 TADV 3 -2 0 4 1 0 -1 -6 -3 -7 -8 2 -2 2 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 459 413 335 280 276 225 175 116 -40 46 -96 -374 -641 -828 -935 -956 -974 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 19.2 20.1 21.1 21.9 23.1 24.5 25.8 27.6 29.6 32.0 34.4 36.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.4 111.2 111.9 112.5 113.5 114.0 114.1 113.9 113.5 112.9 112.0 110.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 9 7 7 8 10 12 12 13 11 7 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 2 2 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 11. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. -3. -13. -25. -35. -43. -47. -51. -53. -59. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 7. 4. 1. -6. -19. -31. -41. -46. -50. -55. -59. -66. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.2 109.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952020 INVEST 06/29/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.44 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.1% 5.3% 1.8% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952020 INVEST 06/29/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##