* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 10/05/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 36 36 36 37 34 32 29 26 23 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 36 36 36 37 34 32 29 26 23 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 28 27 26 24 22 20 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 12 7 8 8 10 13 19 19 24 24 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -5 -6 -7 -3 0 -2 -2 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 323 322 321 302 291 296 267 238 237 244 243 238 237 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.5 25.9 25.8 25.2 24.6 24.1 24.0 24.3 24.7 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 134 128 121 121 114 106 100 99 104 109 117 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 61 62 59 58 56 46 40 37 35 35 34 32 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -6 -11 -14 -10 -25 -31 -56 -60 -64 -36 -37 -32 200 MB DIV 49 42 29 37 38 28 9 13 -12 2 -16 -20 -39 700-850 TADV 0 1 4 2 1 0 2 2 5 6 4 6 7 LAND (KM) 1823 1811 1796 1785 1784 1803 1785 1745 1710 1734 1815 1970 1918 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.8 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.9 21.4 22.5 23.2 23.3 22.9 22.2 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 127.4 128.0 128.5 128.9 129.4 130.5 131.2 131.7 132.1 132.6 133.3 134.7 136.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 9 8 4 3 3 5 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.1 127.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 10/05/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.47 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 19.2% 17.3% 12.2% 0.0% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 10.7% 5.9% 1.5% 3.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 10.0% 7.7% 4.6% 1.1% 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 10/05/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##