* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 10/03/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 36 37 39 41 44 44 45 44 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 36 37 39 41 44 44 45 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 33 33 32 31 29 28 27 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 10 7 6 10 14 8 9 7 12 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -1 -4 -4 -4 -1 -2 -3 -6 -5 -8 SHEAR DIR 70 64 71 55 17 350 346 358 355 356 347 347 329 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 139 140 141 144 144 141 139 140 139 142 141 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -53.8 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 62 63 65 67 65 64 63 65 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 40 32 13 -4 -19 -27 -24 -38 -41 -54 -57 -54 -26 200 MB DIV 23 30 43 41 31 15 14 35 29 36 16 15 12 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -4 -6 -3 -6 LAND (KM) 1847 1878 1886 1893 1909 1919 1927 1934 1959 2035 2163 2280 2033 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.9 14.6 15.2 15.6 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 125.2 125.4 125.5 125.7 125.9 126.5 127.2 127.9 128.7 130.0 131.6 133.6 136.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 3 5 5 4 6 7 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 13 14 14 20 20 16 15 17 21 17 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 14. 14. 15. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 125.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 10/03/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.53 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 21.0% 13.7% 13.4% 0.0% 16.1% 16.1% 9.3% Logistic: 0.3% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 1.4% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 7.8% 4.9% 4.6% 0.0% 5.5% 5.8% 4.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 10/03/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##