* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 10/03/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 25 27 31 33 33 32 33 34 35 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 25 27 31 33 33 32 33 34 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 22 22 21 19 18 17 16 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 13 13 10 6 11 14 10 13 8 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 1 1 -5 -6 -3 -2 -5 -5 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 71 72 68 61 74 1 334 333 343 339 349 339 307 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.6 27.1 26.1 25.6 25.7 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 141 142 142 143 143 138 133 123 118 119 120 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 57 59 60 58 58 56 59 59 57 54 52 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 37 44 41 39 29 -3 0 1 -15 -3 -17 -27 -48 200 MB DIV 14 3 18 29 38 15 12 28 17 16 13 4 -14 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1769 1809 1826 1827 1821 1840 1866 1843 1812 1819 1829 1869 1950 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.5 16.4 17.4 18.2 19.2 20.0 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 125.0 125.6 125.9 126.0 126.1 126.5 127.3 128.0 128.6 129.4 130.3 131.3 132.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 2 2 2 4 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 19 20 21 22 20 15 11 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 449 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 6. 8. 8. 7. 8. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.3 125.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 10/03/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.36 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.78 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.82 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.8% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 10/03/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##