* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 08/21/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 48 53 64 70 72 71 66 61 54 45 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 48 53 64 70 72 71 66 61 54 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 45 54 60 60 56 50 44 38 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 11 12 17 19 17 16 8 5 7 14 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -4 -2 5 8 6 1 -1 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 22 25 38 53 30 38 43 50 60 187 197 165 174 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.1 28.7 27.0 25.5 24.3 23.2 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 161 163 164 161 155 151 133 117 105 94 76 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 79 76 76 74 73 72 67 64 65 63 58 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 14 18 18 20 22 22 22 20 18 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 68 67 76 91 82 68 57 37 18 0 -14 -29 -18 200 MB DIV 68 73 66 75 65 40 24 35 -17 -8 -28 -18 -13 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -8 -8 -8 -1 -5 -6 -5 0 -3 0 1 LAND (KM) 419 464 514 560 629 670 640 638 610 591 564 513 534 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 11 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 43 29 21 20 21 20 16 13 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 26. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 11. 14. 15. 13. 10. 6. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 18. 23. 34. 40. 42. 41. 36. 31. 24. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 104.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/21/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.31 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 22.7% 20.7% 15.7% 0.0% 18.2% 18.3% 11.0% Logistic: 2.6% 19.5% 7.6% 4.0% 3.3% 10.9% 24.8% 11.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 7.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.4% Consensus: 4.5% 16.5% 10.1% 6.7% 1.2% 10.1% 14.6% 7.5% DTOPS: 3.0% 21.0% 13.0% 8.0% 3.0% 17.0% 26.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/21/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##