* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 08/21/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 39 46 57 68 71 70 69 65 59 53 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 39 46 57 68 71 70 69 65 59 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 34 42 48 51 51 48 43 39 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 10 9 19 16 19 10 4 8 10 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -1 0 3 6 4 3 1 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 17 27 37 44 47 34 45 57 65 119 190 194 177 SST (C) 30.8 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.6 29.8 29.4 28.6 27.9 26.1 24.8 23.7 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 173 169 168 164 162 164 159 150 143 124 110 99 84 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.2 -51.8 -51.5 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 80 80 76 77 76 75 73 67 66 62 61 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 15 17 19 22 22 21 22 20 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 66 66 59 64 88 75 63 41 25 6 -8 -21 -33 200 MB DIV 97 63 66 65 81 51 25 27 3 -12 -18 -34 -1 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -6 -5 -3 0 3 -10 0 -2 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 350 373 414 467 516 656 626 572 562 496 490 492 523 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 13 13 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 58 48 34 25 20 20 18 11 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 19. 25. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 10. 13. 13. 14. 11. 7. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 14. 21. 32. 43. 46. 45. 44. 40. 34. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 102.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/21/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.93 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.41 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.33 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.7% 23.2% 0.0% 0.0% 20.4% 20.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 32.3% 15.5% 8.4% 5.1% 28.1% 42.8% 22.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.9% 1.2% 1.4% Consensus: 1.0% 21.6% 13.5% 3.0% 1.8% 16.5% 21.5% 7.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 12.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 9.0% 25.0% 27.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/21/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##