* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 08/20/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 40 52 61 67 68 67 66 63 58 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 40 52 61 67 68 67 66 63 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 40 45 48 48 45 42 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 19 19 17 9 16 13 14 10 4 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -4 -3 0 3 5 5 2 1 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 26 14 19 24 31 62 43 61 57 70 87 186 198 SST (C) 29.7 30.4 30.8 30.4 30.0 29.6 29.8 29.7 28.7 27.7 27.4 25.2 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 163 171 172 170 166 162 163 162 151 140 137 114 97 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.4 -52.6 -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 7 6 7 5 4 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 79 80 82 81 80 79 79 78 74 67 67 62 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 9 12 13 14 14 13 14 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 66 65 64 48 42 65 44 29 15 15 -1 -4 -19 200 MB DIV 91 98 71 54 46 77 58 60 47 21 7 -6 -28 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -7 -5 -2 0 5 0 5 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 312 351 390 409 419 493 551 569 466 393 320 256 326 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 12 12 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 48 61 56 43 22 20 18 12 5 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 19. 26. 30. 33. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -4. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 7. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 27. 36. 42. 43. 42. 41. 38. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 99.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/20/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.94 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.06 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.44 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 12.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.0% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% 19.4% 21.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 20.8% 7.3% 3.5% 3.3% 24.6% 65.3% 43.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 2.8% 2.3% 8.6% Consensus: 0.8% 16.0% 9.3% 1.2% 1.2% 15.6% 29.5% 17.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 15.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/20/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##