* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 08/20/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 43 54 62 65 67 64 64 58 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 43 54 62 65 67 64 64 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 31 36 41 44 46 44 41 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 19 18 18 12 13 17 15 13 9 3 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 -2 -4 0 -1 3 5 2 -2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 31 20 26 25 27 41 41 63 45 50 62 133 172 SST (C) 30.4 30.0 30.4 30.8 30.5 30.0 30.1 29.8 29.5 28.4 27.8 26.7 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 170 166 170 172 171 166 167 163 159 148 141 130 104 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 4 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 79 80 80 81 80 79 79 78 77 74 67 64 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 10 12 14 13 14 13 12 8 850 MB ENV VOR 78 67 59 55 37 35 38 21 13 14 0 7 0 200 MB DIV 78 91 80 76 61 62 75 50 69 44 11 -9 5 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -5 -8 -2 -3 3 4 3 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 265 287 327 354 387 413 452 520 504 382 304 265 240 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 8 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 47 38 43 57 50 30 24 20 16 9 6 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 19. 26. 31. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 8. 10. 8. 7. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 18. 29. 37. 40. 42. 39. 39. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 98.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/20/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.96 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.07 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.43 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 13.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.5% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 18.1% 20.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 5.4% 1.9% 0.8% 0.4% 8.1% 42.2% 33.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 13.3% Consensus: 0.1% 9.1% 6.8% 0.3% 0.2% 8.8% 20.9% 15.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/20/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##