* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 08/20/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 58 65 72 73 72 70 66 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 58 65 72 73 72 70 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 29 33 38 45 51 54 53 48 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 18 17 18 13 12 19 17 20 13 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 3 1 -3 -1 0 0 4 4 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 43 34 30 33 28 35 40 37 50 49 77 79 130 SST (C) 30.6 30.3 30.0 30.4 30.8 29.9 30.4 29.9 29.5 28.8 27.9 27.5 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 171 168 166 170 172 165 170 164 159 152 142 138 109 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.4 -52.6 -51.6 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 5 7 8 6 8 7 6 4 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 77 79 80 79 81 81 78 78 78 77 73 66 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 10 10 13 14 16 17 17 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 77 81 73 66 55 34 57 45 36 7 5 -13 -9 200 MB DIV 100 89 104 83 79 59 52 35 65 47 25 -1 -6 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -5 -4 -2 -6 4 3 2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 201 214 240 285 330 347 418 488 518 405 335 305 202 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 41 43 39 41 54 33 29 21 17 11 6 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 19. 26. 31. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 12. 12. 12. 10. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 33. 40. 47. 48. 47. 45. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 97.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/20/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.96 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.10 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.66 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.39 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.77 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.9% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 20.1% 22.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 7.3% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4% 11.5% 54.8% 40.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 12.5% Consensus: 0.2% 11.3% 8.0% 0.5% 0.1% 10.6% 25.8% 17.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 8.0% 18.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/20/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##