* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 08/19/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 34 38 48 60 69 76 80 83 86 87 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 34 38 48 60 69 66 60 63 43 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 34 40 48 57 50 58 42 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 15 16 13 8 8 9 11 15 15 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 5 0 -1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 30 32 30 28 21 11 360 357 11 3 353 344 300 SST (C) 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.1 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.2 30.7 30.4 29.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 169 170 166 171 171 172 167 171 169 158 149 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 5 4 7 6 8 8 10 9 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 74 79 80 80 78 81 79 79 79 80 77 77 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 9 13 13 13 14 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 71 76 74 66 54 25 19 40 33 55 31 57 40 200 MB DIV 79 94 84 95 92 84 71 51 49 69 29 83 7 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 -2 -5 -1 0 4 4 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 263 234 243 235 229 222 201 102 0 24 15 -59 -149 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.8 15.9 17.5 19.3 21.0 22.9 24.5 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 95.3 96.1 96.9 97.7 98.5 100.3 102.2 103.8 104.9 105.7 106.3 106.9 107.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 10 9 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 38 37 42 44 43 39 36 31 30 30 28 18 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 19. 26. 31. 35. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 7. 9. 10. 13. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 13. 23. 35. 44. 51. 55. 58. 61. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 95.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/19/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.94 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.25 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.64 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.37 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.0% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 21.7% 24.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 14.8% 8.2% 3.7% 1.1% 26.8% 69.0% 60.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.8% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% 3.9% 14.5% Consensus: 0.5% 14.9% 10.5% 1.3% 0.4% 16.7% 32.4% 25.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/19/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##