* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 08/19/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 57 68 76 85 87 90 89 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 57 68 54 36 30 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 34 40 49 44 32 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 14 11 11 7 8 3 10 11 19 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 2 2 -2 0 -1 0 0 -4 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 32 18 14 6 5 356 338 360 335 330 4 13 22 SST (C) 30.5 30.7 30.5 30.4 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.4 29.2 28.7 29.0 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 169 168 171 170 169 169 156 150 153 152 150 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 5 4 8 5 10 7 12 9 14 10 700-500 MB RH 73 73 78 80 78 81 81 81 80 78 79 75 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 8 11 12 14 17 19 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 66 66 74 73 61 53 25 52 39 36 22 -23 -43 200 MB DIV 58 37 62 83 73 69 78 75 43 43 32 50 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 1 -2 -1 0 3 0 2 0 3 LAND (KM) 153 175 227 235 190 146 97 36 -46 -168 -220 -204 -245 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.6 15.6 16.9 18.4 19.6 20.8 22.0 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 93.2 93.7 94.4 95.2 96.0 97.6 99.3 100.9 101.9 102.5 103.1 103.4 103.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 9 8 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 55 62 53 39 38 42 39 32 18 15 16 16 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 827 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 19. 26. 31. 34. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 16. 17. 18. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 32. 43. 51. 60. 62. 65. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 93.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/19/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.95 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.29 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.45 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.89 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.7% 22.1% 0.0% 0.0% 22.0% 29.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 24.7% 14.7% 7.0% 2.5% 30.1% 57.0% 61.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 2.3% 9.1% 8.4% Consensus: 1.2% 18.2% 12.7% 2.4% 0.9% 18.1% 31.7% 23.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/19/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##