* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 08/18/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 35 42 50 59 62 70 72 78 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 35 42 50 59 62 56 37 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 32 35 34 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 26 24 24 22 18 8 7 6 8 6 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 5 5 2 1 0 -1 -2 -5 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 62 63 53 51 42 22 8 348 327 304 260 288 297 SST (C) 29.0 29.5 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.1 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 157 161 163 163 163 163 167 170 171 166 152 151 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.8 -53.2 -53.8 -53.2 -53.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 7 7 5 7 4 8 5 10 6 11 700-500 MB RH 73 73 72 72 73 75 77 78 78 78 78 79 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 10 9 11 11 14 850 MB ENV VOR 45 42 43 46 56 57 57 52 44 15 32 36 42 200 MB DIV 49 56 46 39 47 57 89 101 89 71 55 62 54 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 2 LAND (KM) 218 201 183 175 178 232 307 294 202 83 -27 -150 -272 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.8 12.9 12.8 12.8 13.1 14.0 15.4 17.0 18.7 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 91.5 91.9 92.2 92.5 92.8 93.5 94.5 95.7 97.1 98.5 99.7 100.6 101.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 4 6 7 9 10 10 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 28 34 37 39 39 35 37 43 49 31 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 34. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 7. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 17. 25. 34. 38. 45. 47. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 91.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/18/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 1.4% 14.2% 46.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% Consensus: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 4.7% 16.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/18/19 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING