* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 08/17/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 35 44 52 65 72 80 87 96 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 35 44 52 65 72 80 73 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 34 38 43 50 53 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 22 25 22 22 20 17 14 11 10 10 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 2 4 4 3 2 -2 -3 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 39 64 67 62 48 33 17 9 328 313 328 290 337 SST (C) 28.8 29.3 29.8 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.4 30.1 30.5 31.0 30.1 31.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 156 161 164 165 165 165 168 166 171 173 168 173 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 6 7 6 7 7 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 70 71 74 73 77 75 79 75 74 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 7 8 7 11 12 16 18 21 23 29 850 MB ENV VOR 44 47 46 40 41 54 50 51 42 24 11 38 35 200 MB DIV 37 48 49 36 18 67 64 103 75 80 70 48 27 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 2 -1 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 253 236 222 198 202 260 312 274 226 177 102 -10 61 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.0 13.3 14.0 15.2 17.0 19.1 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 91.6 92.0 92.4 92.8 93.2 94.2 95.4 96.8 98.4 100.2 102.2 104.3 106.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 9 12 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 19 29 37 39 39 38 36 42 46 41 37 26 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 34. 38. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 13. 15. 19. 21. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 19. 27. 40. 47. 55. 62. 71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 91.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/17/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 3.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 1.4% 8.7% 32.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.1% 5.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 2.9% 11.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/17/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##