* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 08/16/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 27 30 35 41 47 55 61 66 67 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 27 30 35 41 47 55 61 66 67 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 28 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 16 12 13 18 22 24 16 9 14 6 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 0 -2 4 4 1 2 1 0 4 5 SHEAR DIR 24 15 19 22 27 62 68 46 11 348 307 3 290 SST (C) 28.3 27.8 27.2 27.1 27.4 28.4 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.3 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 135 133 135 145 154 156 157 159 162 168 171 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -54.0 -54.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.9 -53.0 -53.6 -52.9 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 4 6 4 6 4 6 4 7 5 700-500 MB RH 78 77 79 78 76 73 73 71 69 74 73 77 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 10 13 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 45 30 23 34 35 62 54 34 39 52 34 46 25 200 MB DIV 40 35 62 65 38 31 5 27 52 78 99 89 88 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 330 351 374 391 385 351 284 257 290 311 309 241 58 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.5 11.0 11.7 12.0 11.8 11.8 12.3 13.8 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 89.0 89.9 90.7 91.3 91.7 92.3 92.4 92.5 92.8 93.3 94.0 94.7 95.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 5 4 3 3 1 2 3 6 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 6 3 3 6 18 32 36 37 38 36 29 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 26. 30. 34. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 8. 12. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 15. 21. 27. 35. 41. 46. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 89.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/16/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 5.4% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 2.4% 7.2% 30.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 2.4% 10.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/16/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##