* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 07/06/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 43 42 41 38 36 31 25 21 20 20 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 43 42 41 38 36 31 25 21 20 20 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 44 43 39 35 32 28 24 21 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 9 2 4 8 7 4 10 12 15 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 6 1 -1 0 2 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 329 319 321 297 335 358 325 296 297 308 298 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.5 27.2 27.2 26.9 26.2 24.4 24.0 24.0 23.7 23.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 140 136 136 132 124 105 100 100 96 91 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 60 60 58 55 52 49 43 39 35 34 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 18 16 15 13 12 10 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 15 8 5 -2 -5 -14 -7 -17 -25 -41 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 88 91 86 55 52 39 8 -24 -18 -17 -5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 2 9 3 0 1 2 1 0 2 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 991 1019 1067 1086 1105 1113 1104 1105 1118 1115 1085 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 9 8 7 6 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 7 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -14. -20. -24. -25. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.4 115.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 07/06/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 07/06/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##