* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 07/06/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 44 45 47 46 44 39 35 34 34 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 44 45 47 46 44 39 35 34 34 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 41 41 40 39 36 33 30 26 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 14 15 8 1 7 6 3 5 9 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 3 1 -1 -1 2 -1 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 297 318 330 347 39 338 357 354 308 311 302 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.3 27.4 27.2 27.1 25.6 24.6 24.5 24.4 23.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 149 139 136 134 118 106 104 105 101 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 2 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 62 59 54 51 50 48 44 38 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 15 16 16 15 13 13 11 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 19 18 15 11 5 0 -12 -14 -16 -9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 98 82 77 83 45 25 17 -22 -8 -13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -12 -1 6 0 1 1 2 0 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 987 964 959 1000 1057 1118 1109 1103 1097 1063 1001 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 15.1 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.4 18.7 19.7 19.8 20.6 22.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.9 115.2 116.5 117.8 119.6 120.8 121.5 121.5 121.9 122.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 13 11 9 7 3 2 6 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 28 15 6 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 11. 9. 4. 0. -1. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.3 112.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 07/06/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.50 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.63 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.75 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 23.6% 22.9% 17.5% 10.6% 19.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 8.4% 8.1% 5.9% 3.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 07/06/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##