* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 07/05/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 38 43 46 47 45 39 34 29 22 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 38 43 46 47 45 39 34 29 22 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 31 29 27 24 21 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 15 17 12 16 26 17 22 24 22 25 31 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 6 7 6 4 3 3 2 5 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 316 317 304 296 314 318 328 311 307 303 295 293 292 SST (C) 29.6 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.6 27.6 27.2 26.4 24.5 24.0 23.8 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 157 154 152 153 152 141 136 127 106 100 98 97 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 74 73 73 73 69 63 60 57 56 51 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 1 4 1 17 18 6 5 -13 -13 -20 -19 -16 200 MB DIV 124 116 87 71 99 93 89 84 54 32 31 2 -33 700-850 TADV -7 -11 -13 -8 -11 -14 -5 5 1 -1 4 4 6 LAND (KM) 914 958 985 1020 1057 1057 1068 1094 1083 1050 991 914 857 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.2 11.8 12.4 13.2 14.6 16.0 17.2 18.5 19.7 20.8 21.8 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 106.9 108.4 109.8 111.2 112.5 114.9 117.1 119.0 120.3 120.9 121.1 121.2 121.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 14 12 10 8 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 39 41 37 29 38 29 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -10. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 18. 21. 22. 20. 14. 9. 4. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 106.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 07/05/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.32 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.70 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.33 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.7% 23.8% 0.0% 0.0% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 33.8% 16.0% 10.2% 1.3% 12.0% 6.5% 2.8% Bayesian: 2.1% 31.8% 16.5% 4.5% 0.1% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 31.4% 18.8% 4.9% 0.5% 11.4% 2.2% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 07/05/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##