* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 07/04/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 23 25 29 34 36 35 32 30 26 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 23 25 29 34 36 35 32 30 26 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 17 17 21 23 22 17 22 20 22 23 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 5 6 7 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 SHEAR DIR 299 319 322 311 313 315 317 306 317 316 302 305 296 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.0 28.6 28.5 28.9 27.9 27.6 26.9 25.7 24.4 24.1 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 156 152 151 155 144 140 132 119 104 101 99 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 6 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 78 77 73 73 72 69 65 60 57 55 54 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 5 6 3 3 15 7 2 -15 -18 -29 -32 -30 200 MB DIV 129 128 115 70 58 83 72 91 55 34 -4 -12 -14 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -13 -11 -12 -12 -13 -5 0 -2 3 -3 2 LAND (KM) 894 925 958 968 1002 1046 1049 1102 1107 1078 1047 1006 961 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.9 11.4 12.1 12.8 14.2 15.5 16.5 17.7 18.9 19.9 20.7 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 105.8 107.3 108.7 110.0 111.4 113.8 116.2 118.1 119.8 120.6 121.0 121.2 121.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 13 12 10 9 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 30 39 42 32 27 47 9 7 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 30. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 16. 15. 12. 10. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.5 105.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 07/04/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 16.5% 6.9% 3.4% 0.5% 6.4% 4.4% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.5% 4.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 6.8% 2.7% 1.2% 0.2% 2.3% 1.5% 1.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 07/04/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##