* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 07/04/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 27 30 34 36 37 35 34 32 29 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 27 30 34 36 37 35 34 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 21 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 10 13 18 26 26 23 20 20 17 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 4 2 3 5 3 3 2 1 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 293 300 294 298 300 295 308 327 331 319 316 306 309 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.5 28.8 28.1 29.0 27.1 26.4 24.7 24.5 24.0 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 164 162 155 148 157 137 128 110 106 100 95 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 73 76 78 76 73 69 66 61 57 54 54 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -3 -7 0 5 22 40 5 8 -6 -9 -25 -30 200 MB DIV 106 110 122 130 117 79 69 41 63 54 37 16 -6 700-850 TADV -9 -15 -7 -4 -10 -10 -19 -3 4 4 -2 1 4 LAND (KM) 755 786 793 808 838 909 958 1036 1108 1199 1242 1229 1202 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.9 11.4 12.0 12.6 14.0 15.3 16.5 17.6 18.6 19.6 20.5 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 102.5 104.1 105.6 107.1 108.5 111.4 114.3 117.2 119.7 121.8 123.3 124.1 124.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 15 15 16 15 14 12 10 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 29 27 33 35 28 14 25 4 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 30. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 16. 17. 15. 14. 12. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.5 102.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 07/04/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.4% 46.6% 30.7% 19.2% 6.6% 18.6% 12.1% 6.5% Bayesian: 1.5% 10.7% 8.4% 1.8% 0.2% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 19.1% 13.0% 7.0% 2.3% 6.8% 4.0% 2.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 07/04/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##