* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 09/29/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 36 44 53 69 82 93 103 107 107 105 96 94 91 90 89 V (KT) LAND 25 30 36 44 53 69 82 93 103 107 107 105 96 94 91 90 89 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 38 48 60 73 85 93 93 88 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 11 12 14 7 7 2 4 4 5 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 3 3 2 4 2 5 5 0 1 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 100 99 76 64 59 46 97 98 89 68 107 256 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.2 27.9 26.8 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 152 152 153 154 151 152 151 147 144 131 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.2 -52.9 -52.1 -52.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 76 76 76 77 74 76 76 78 76 69 63 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 12 14 17 22 26 29 34 36 38 40 38 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 45 47 55 51 68 87 74 81 75 88 69 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 108 131 141 118 122 100 100 86 105 64 31 -21 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 -1 -2 -6 -3 -3 0 -2 0 2 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 589 633 679 727 769 892 1011 1091 1229 1293 1354 1391 1445 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 11 13 12 12 12 11 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 19 21 22 18 12 21 17 16 11 13 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 57.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. 38. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 7. 11. 18. 27. 36. 40. 41. 42. 36. 33. 29. 27. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 15. 9. 3. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 19. 28. 44. 57. 68. 78. 82. 82. 80. 71. 69. 66. 65. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 105.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 09/29/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.45 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.81 7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -6.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.77 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.7% 23.9% 0.0% 0.0% 21.8% 23.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 12.8% 7.4% 4.3% 0.6% 16.1% 24.4% 21.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 7.9% 7.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 7.6% Consensus: 1.1% 15.5% 12.8% 1.9% 0.2% 12.8% 16.1% 9.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 34.0% 17.0% 6.0% 2.0% 18.0% 44.0% 54.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 09/29/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##