* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 09/28/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 43 51 57 62 64 65 64 62 59 57 53 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 43 51 57 62 64 65 64 62 59 57 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 32 34 35 37 40 42 44 44 43 40 36 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 12 7 6 11 13 11 6 9 8 9 7 9 7 10 13 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 6 8 5 2 0 5 2 0 2 5 9 7 11 5 SHEAR DIR 107 95 78 50 27 22 16 57 5 41 2 329 349 270 318 293 293 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.4 27.8 27.8 26.7 26.2 25.5 24.9 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 152 151 152 156 153 152 150 149 142 142 130 124 117 111 101 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 73 75 76 77 77 77 76 76 73 75 72 67 66 60 56 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 13 28 43 53 58 76 89 82 92 99 84 70 44 45 42 48 200 MB DIV 73 95 119 109 98 90 72 97 112 99 65 32 -2 22 12 30 -15 700-850 TADV 2 0 -4 -4 -8 -13 -14 -17 -20 -3 -12 -4 -9 15 4 16 16 LAND (KM) 542 555 569 601 634 709 885 992 1115 1225 1305 1381 1404 1470 1558 1624 1662 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 3 5 8 12 14 14 13 11 9 9 9 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 19 18 19 16 12 25 13 13 8 13 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 35. 36. 36. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 18. 26. 32. 37. 39. 40. 39. 37. 34. 32. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 105.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 09/28/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.50 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.68 6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -6.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.90 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.0% 23.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.6% 21.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 6.0% 3.0% 1.3% 0.2% 5.6% 12.6% 14.5% Bayesian: 0.7% 3.4% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 6.8% Consensus: 0.5% 11.5% 9.5% 0.6% 0.1% 8.7% 11.5% 7.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 46.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 09/28/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##