* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 09/27/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 36 43 51 59 62 64 65 65 65 65 65 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 36 43 51 59 62 64 65 65 65 65 65 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 29 30 33 36 39 40 41 42 44 44 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 13 14 17 20 12 9 8 2 5 6 9 10 4 3 5 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 -1 -3 -1 4 3 4 4 3 -4 -5 0 5 13 6 SHEAR DIR 99 86 86 81 90 83 42 58 47 222 218 195 161 121 137 215 251 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 27.8 27.1 26.3 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 153 151 150 153 154 152 154 154 152 149 140 134 127 110 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 68 70 71 73 73 75 75 74 71 69 67 68 67 66 62 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -16 -17 -16 -7 26 59 72 83 95 100 107 107 97 72 33 -1 200 MB DIV 58 77 81 69 68 107 115 115 75 103 91 65 74 126 79 66 4 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -1 1 0 -4 -3 -7 -11 -2 -3 -1 0 1 16 40 LAND (KM) 607 608 606 612 627 694 797 923 1050 1185 1383 1568 1747 1811 1734 1568 1400 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.6 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.7 104.2 104.8 105.4 105.9 107.1 109.0 111.2 113.9 117.2 120.6 123.5 125.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 7 10 12 15 17 16 13 8 5 9 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 25 20 19 21 21 13 22 16 17 17 12 7 4 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 24. 29. 32. 34. 37. 39. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 8. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 18. 26. 34. 37. 39. 40. 40. 40. 40. 40. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 103.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 09/27/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.16 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.54 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.21 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.81 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.0% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 17.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 3.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 1.6% 6.8% 9.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.8% Consensus: 0.2% 6.0% 4.9% 0.2% 0.1% 5.3% 8.2% 3.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 09/27/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##