* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 08/15/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 39 42 40 39 36 33 29 27 24 25 26 30 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 39 42 40 39 36 33 29 27 24 25 26 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 28 26 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 6 4 6 9 14 12 11 10 7 7 6 5 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -1 4 0 -1 -1 0 0 2 9 7 2 -2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 43 30 45 38 340 272 287 291 271 244 244 224 204 203 278 315 153 SST (C) 28.8 28.4 28.4 27.3 26.3 24.2 23.5 22.4 22.2 22.5 23.2 23.5 24.1 25.1 25.8 27.0 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 148 137 127 106 99 87 85 88 95 98 105 115 122 134 137 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 3 4 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 73 73 73 72 71 63 56 51 48 44 42 36 32 27 30 34 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 15 16 17 18 17 15 14 13 11 9 9 8 9 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 55 61 54 49 38 39 17 -1 0 8 23 10 24 29 49 60 69 200 MB DIV 86 92 96 59 50 33 -4 -13 -8 -15 2 -20 -27 -23 -25 -4 -25 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -9 -13 3 -4 9 1 5 -2 6 -4 6 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1159 1125 1057 1001 961 956 1029 1234 1426 1632 1872 1852 1601 1376 1214 1129 1119 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.5 17.4 18.3 19.3 21.3 22.9 24.0 24.5 24.2 23.5 22.4 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.0 118.5 118.7 119.0 119.5 121.2 123.7 126.6 129.4 132.2 134.8 137.2 139.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 12 14 14 14 13 13 12 13 14 14 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 23 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 19. 17. 15. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -4. -7. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 15. 14. 11. 8. 4. 2. -1. 0. 1. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 118.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 08/15/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.77 6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.57 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -5.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.0% 22.9% 0.0% 0.0% 18.3% 16.5% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 19.2% 9.0% 5.0% 0.7% 2.7% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 14.8% 10.8% 1.7% 0.2% 7.0% 5.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 08/15/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##