* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 08/14/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 35 40 43 42 41 36 31 24 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 35 40 43 42 41 36 31 24 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 25 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 15 13 7 6 10 8 13 15 19 21 22 21 18 26 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 2 5 1 -1 0 0 -1 -2 0 6 7 7 3 1 SHEAR DIR 44 43 46 51 57 27 317 284 247 245 238 230 229 224 219 223 243 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 27.4 25.7 24.0 22.4 21.9 21.7 22.2 22.5 22.9 23.8 24.4 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 157 156 155 138 122 105 88 82 79 84 88 92 102 108 113 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -51.5 -51.2 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.7 -52.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 72 72 70 65 57 51 49 47 44 37 33 27 25 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 14 16 15 16 15 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 46 53 63 71 35 29 30 8 19 5 3 -19 -4 -11 0 2 200 MB DIV 103 115 101 98 91 54 13 0 -14 2 -3 -24 -11 -31 -20 -29 -3 700-850 TADV -5 -9 -9 -9 -5 0 0 -14 7 5 13 8 14 12 7 18 9 LAND (KM) 1274 1240 1180 1117 1028 837 745 775 938 1148 1278 1460 1698 1948 1718 1441 1142 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.6 15.5 16.6 18.8 21.0 23.0 24.6 25.8 26.2 26.0 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.6 116.8 117.0 117.2 117.2 117.2 118.3 120.6 123.7 126.7 129.4 131.8 134.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 9 10 11 11 14 16 16 13 11 11 12 11 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 19 18 18 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 17. 21. 23. 23. 22. 20. 17. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 2. -1. -2. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 18. 17. 16. 11. 6. -1. -8. -13. -17. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 116.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 08/14/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.36 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.70 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.4% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 20.1% 19.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 13.6% 6.0% 3.5% 0.6% 8.6% 1.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 12.9% 9.2% 1.2% 0.2% 9.6% 7.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 7.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 08/14/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##