* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 08/14/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 34 39 42 43 42 38 33 26 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 34 39 42 43 42 38 33 26 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 23 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 18 18 17 11 10 8 9 11 16 23 31 35 35 34 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 3 1 1 0 -1 -1 1 3 1 0 -1 0 3 3 5 SHEAR DIR 53 37 35 47 55 54 5 316 249 248 239 226 225 227 239 251 268 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.1 27.1 25.6 23.7 22.3 21.9 21.7 21.9 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 155 157 157 156 136 121 102 87 82 79 81 81 80 79 81 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 74 72 72 71 72 75 71 62 57 53 51 46 45 43 40 35 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 13 13 13 14 14 13 11 11 9 8 7 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 32 34 49 57 58 30 38 50 17 -2 12 -1 -18 -47 -72 -72 200 MB DIV 96 113 105 103 77 91 27 10 10 -5 -4 3 1 -30 -22 -17 -35 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -12 -11 -10 -3 -5 -6 -4 8 9 17 15 19 11 15 6 LAND (KM) 1345 1333 1295 1229 1150 951 780 738 790 962 1148 1270 1438 1590 1679 1659 1745 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.4 14.2 15.1 17.2 19.3 21.4 23.2 24.9 26.1 26.7 26.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.5 116.8 117.1 117.2 117.2 116.8 117.0 118.5 121.0 124.1 127.1 129.9 132.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 9 10 10 12 13 16 16 13 12 10 8 4 1 4 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 18 19 18 18 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 22. 25. 25. 25. 22. 19. 17. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -2. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 14. 17. 18. 17. 13. 8. 1. -10. -18. -25. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 116.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 08/14/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.15 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.68 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.83 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.0% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 18.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 5.5% 1.6% 0.9% 0.1% 2.9% 4.4% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 8.6% 6.4% 0.3% 0.0% 6.8% 7.6% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 08/14/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##