* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 06/27/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 21 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 17 17 20 23 21 23 25 23 19 12 6 15 23 28 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 1 0 -2 -4 -1 -3 -3 0 1 1 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 145 155 158 158 146 145 156 166 180 198 227 249 242 193 195 198 206 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.7 27.1 25.9 25.1 24.1 23.5 23.2 23.0 22.3 21.5 20.3 19.2 18.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 147 146 141 135 122 113 101 94 91 89 83 76 64 62 62 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 70 68 65 59 59 55 56 52 52 46 45 39 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 54 61 65 72 83 78 59 44 28 13 15 20 13 -11 21 -14 200 MB DIV 87 76 61 65 66 60 60 18 21 -4 0 -28 7 -4 1 16 28 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 0 -1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -13 LAND (KM) 568 633 697 728 712 749 829 871 869 846 788 718 635 509 341 242 74 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.4 19.9 20.6 21.3 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.7 109.7 110.6 111.5 112.4 114.3 116.1 117.6 118.4 118.6 118.5 118.2 117.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 10 9 7 4 3 3 4 7 9 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 10 9 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 20. 17. 14. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -4. -9. -13. -16. -16. -14. -13. -14. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -21. -23. -25. -28. -32. -39. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 108.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 06/27/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.10 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.54 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.07 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.5% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.3% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 06/27/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##