* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 06/26/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 22 21 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 24 22 21 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 18 21 19 19 21 20 16 19 19 19 16 17 14 19 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 -3 -3 3 4 0 3 1 5 3 2 SHEAR DIR 154 144 162 163 156 144 154 169 193 217 234 235 242 236 230 219 208 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.0 25.9 25.1 24.1 23.9 23.8 23.6 23.3 22.9 21.8 21.1 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 145 144 140 134 122 113 102 98 97 95 92 89 79 72 62 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 71 69 68 67 62 59 54 53 50 50 47 46 42 40 35 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 51 57 58 56 63 68 55 32 38 22 19 12 8 3 -11 -5 200 MB DIV 46 77 72 51 47 38 36 18 -2 1 5 -8 -12 -11 2 -17 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 -6 -4 -1 -3 0 -3 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 LAND (KM) 487 539 595 678 664 697 807 891 937 957 931 860 799 697 600 422 253 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.4 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.9 109.8 110.9 111.9 113.9 116.0 117.9 119.2 119.8 119.8 119.2 118.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 5 2 2 3 4 6 9 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 10 8 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. 23. 21. 19. 16. 14. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -13. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -14. -18. -20. -23. -25. -27. -33. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.9 107.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 06/26/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.11 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.47 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.08 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.6% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 06/26/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##