* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 06/26/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 23 23 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 23 23 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 18 21 22 23 22 17 16 18 22 25 27 24 26 24 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 0 -2 2 -1 -3 1 3 8 3 3 4 3 2 4 SHEAR DIR 179 159 145 164 169 155 158 172 201 235 247 250 258 264 258 263 259 SST (C) 29.1 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.5 26.4 26.1 24.0 23.7 23.5 23.3 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.2 22.4 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 150 146 145 140 128 125 103 99 96 93 88 90 92 91 83 75 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 71 71 69 69 61 57 50 47 43 45 44 45 43 42 36 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 53 56 61 49 36 29 31 23 26 35 30 26 32 19 -2 -4 200 MB DIV 24 47 79 59 51 33 17 5 6 -15 -2 0 -21 -4 -26 -20 -35 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -5 -1 -5 -1 -5 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 428 446 480 539 606 589 707 796 905 991 1042 1054 1048 1019 953 851 767 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.5 18.4 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.8 21.1 21.3 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.7 108.6 109.6 110.8 113.0 115.3 117.5 119.5 121.1 122.2 122.6 122.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 11 12 11 11 10 10 7 4 0 1 3 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 15 11 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 22. 20. 18. 15. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -19. -24. -29. -33. -37. -42. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.8 106.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 06/26/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.11 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.44 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.07 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.5% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.5% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 06/26/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##