* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 06/25/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 25 27 31 33 32 35 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 25 27 31 33 32 35 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 25 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 12 13 11 12 16 18 16 13 19 26 25 25 29 25 27 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -6 -4 -2 0 -1 4 -5 -1 -2 2 6 6 10 10 11 SHEAR DIR 139 127 136 153 172 174 183 164 176 168 181 194 206 199 198 181 185 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.4 26.3 25.7 23.6 23.5 23.5 23.3 23.2 23.0 22.5 21.5 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 159 156 149 128 121 99 97 96 93 92 89 85 75 68 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 76 75 74 73 68 62 57 55 50 47 44 41 38 34 30 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 7 7 10 12 12 11 14 12 11 9 7 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 73 86 74 60 69 71 49 38 24 10 5 14 0 20 42 26 24 200 MB DIV 57 90 86 51 33 58 40 7 23 0 -15 -1 0 0 -4 13 19 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 -1 -8 -10 -19 -6 -4 2 -2 1 -1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 385 345 319 330 331 440 468 561 708 861 997 1043 1048 1046 1020 953 884 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.8 18.9 19.5 19.9 19.8 20.0 20.6 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.2 104.8 105.7 106.6 108.9 111.4 114.0 116.7 118.7 120.5 121.6 122.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 13 13 13 11 9 7 5 5 3 5 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 26 22 18 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 18. 22. 25. 26. 26. 24. 22. 19. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. 0. 2. 2. 1. 6. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. 2. 6. 8. 7. 10. 2. -6. -14. -21. -28. -33. -39. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.6 103.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 06/25/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.49 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.50 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.08 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.1% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 8.2% 7.2% 0.1% 0.0% 6.2% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 06/25/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##