* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 06/25/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 37 39 41 37 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 37 39 41 37 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 26 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 5 6 7 7 12 17 20 23 30 37 35 31 32 33 39 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 0 -1 -3 0 0 5 0 1 -1 -1 2 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 150 163 174 166 160 177 174 182 191 201 197 202 210 223 236 248 254 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 28.4 26.5 23.8 22.2 20.7 20.1 19.2 18.2 24.1 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 156 159 160 150 130 101 84 68 62 61 60 102 133 133 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 8 6 6 4 4 1 2 0 1 0 2 0 4 700-500 MB RH 80 83 84 82 80 77 69 65 59 55 45 44 41 36 32 32 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 11 10 8 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 78 87 83 87 71 79 27 23 16 -3 18 8 10 -27 -11 -39 200 MB DIV 97 75 73 67 99 82 86 51 26 11 20 1 -18 -7 -3 -5 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 2 6 -3 -6 -3 -13 -8 3 -11 -5 -6 -10 LAND (KM) 506 483 450 402 362 270 232 328 172 206 219 208 89 11 -33 -28 -186 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.2 13.9 14.6 16.2 18.1 19.9 21.6 23.0 24.3 25.9 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.0 101.4 101.8 102.3 102.9 104.6 106.7 108.8 110.9 112.8 114.4 115.8 115.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 9 10 13 14 14 12 11 9 10 9 8 6 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 52 44 36 27 25 23 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 26. 26. 25. 21. 18. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -5. -11. -16. -19. -21. -25. -32. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -4. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 14. 16. 12. 3. -6. -14. -22. -30. -36. -43. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 101.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 06/25/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 8.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.79 7.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.60 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.33 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -5.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -7.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 38.8% 29.1% 0.0% 0.0% 25.2% 24.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 29.1% 16.6% 8.9% 2.9% 32.0% 36.9% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 0.9% 23.5% 15.4% 3.0% 1.0% 19.1% 20.6% 1.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 06/25/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##