* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 06/24/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 28 31 39 44 49 50 47 40 34 27 21 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 28 31 39 44 49 50 47 40 34 27 21 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 24 26 28 29 28 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 4 5 8 11 15 16 15 20 18 18 24 24 28 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -3 -5 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 1 -1 2 0 4 3 5 SHEAR DIR 346 322 265 203 215 185 165 186 182 199 198 205 206 200 199 194 177 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.6 29.5 28.6 27.5 25.8 24.3 23.7 23.1 22.8 22.4 21.6 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 156 155 155 160 160 151 140 122 106 99 93 88 84 75 71 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 80 79 80 82 79 77 69 65 61 55 50 46 43 41 38 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 10 11 11 13 10 12 12 12 11 8 6 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 20 37 52 82 102 78 86 55 57 22 14 -23 -1 37 39 44 34 200 MB DIV 126 82 82 90 89 88 100 66 88 31 5 14 -12 -11 -25 -3 -4 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 2 0 -2 -8 -3 -9 -1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 506 482 459 421 399 341 274 279 387 384 439 531 625 724 763 784 782 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.9 16.1 17.3 18.5 19.6 20.3 20.9 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.3 100.9 101.3 101.6 102.0 103.0 104.5 106.5 108.8 111.1 113.2 115.3 117.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 7 8 10 12 13 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 65 55 45 34 28 24 22 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 31. 33. 35. 34. 33. 31. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 11. 19. 24. 29. 30. 27. 20. 14. 7. 1. -5. -10. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 100.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 06/24/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 6.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 30.7% 19.8% 11.4% 5.3% 37.6% 50.4% 17.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 2.9% Consensus: 1.0% 10.7% 6.9% 3.8% 1.9% 12.6% 16.9% 6.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 06/24/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##