* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 06/24/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 29 34 42 50 54 55 52 45 36 26 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 29 34 42 50 54 55 52 45 36 26 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 26 28 30 31 31 29 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 2 5 9 11 15 14 20 28 31 33 30 24 29 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -3 -3 -4 -6 -4 -2 2 -2 3 -1 2 0 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 11 354 309 256 197 199 163 179 169 179 168 184 185 188 198 227 233 SST (C) 29.5 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.2 27.9 26.5 24.3 23.1 21.7 21.2 19.7 20.4 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 156 156 157 159 162 157 144 129 105 93 78 74 63 68 135 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 8 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 1 0 4 700-500 MB RH 79 80 81 81 81 81 77 74 67 65 58 55 45 43 36 35 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 11 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 7 6 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 15 28 50 82 95 95 67 63 41 26 20 -5 19 -1 3 -19 200 MB DIV 104 118 94 93 106 98 125 71 94 61 28 24 5 -4 16 18 15 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 1 1 -1 0 -5 -1 -4 0 5 2 -10 LAND (KM) 541 533 525 508 485 424 326 295 326 379 284 336 315 334 158 -38 -200 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.9 13.9 15.3 16.7 18.1 19.5 20.7 21.7 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.9 100.7 101.2 101.5 101.9 102.8 104.0 105.7 107.8 109.7 111.4 113.1 114.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 5 5 6 8 10 11 12 11 9 9 10 13 15 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 60 58 51 46 40 29 26 19 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 31. 34. 35. 35. 33. 30. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -9. -12. -14. -19. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 9. 14. 22. 30. 34. 35. 32. 25. 16. 6. -2. -11. -18. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 99.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 06/24/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 6.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 25.5% 16.9% 8.6% 3.4% 32.7% 68.4% 30.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 5.3% 4.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 12.7% Consensus: 0.8% 10.3% 7.2% 3.3% 1.3% 10.9% 23.0% 14.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 06/24/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##