* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 06/23/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 33 41 51 56 60 58 56 52 45 38 30 20 N/A V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 33 41 51 56 60 58 56 52 45 38 30 20 N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 24 26 28 31 33 34 34 32 28 23 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 5 6 3 7 12 10 14 11 15 21 27 30 28 32 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 1 0 -4 -4 -5 -2 0 2 4 -2 1 0 3 5 SHEAR DIR 29 5 358 342 340 207 192 170 182 156 184 196 199 192 182 186 195 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.6 28.9 27.9 26.0 24.0 23.4 22.5 21.2 20.9 19.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 156 155 154 158 160 162 155 144 124 103 97 87 74 71 62 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 76 77 78 78 82 81 78 73 66 61 52 49 43 39 33 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 13 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -3 1 17 39 84 85 87 61 67 34 27 4 35 29 40 43 200 MB DIV 79 99 109 95 111 107 105 89 40 94 60 24 0 -22 -11 1 19 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 2 2 1 -4 -4 -12 -3 -5 -1 2 1 LAND (KM) 595 592 594 594 581 501 424 335 320 404 392 425 493 598 634 603 534 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.6 12.7 13.9 15.4 16.8 18.1 19.5 20.5 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.8 99.6 100.2 100.7 101.1 101.8 102.8 104.4 106.4 108.7 111.0 113.2 115.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 7 9 12 12 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 43 49 51 49 48 41 29 26 16 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 37. 37. 36. 34. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 7. 7. 7. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 21. 31. 36. 40. 38. 36. 32. 25. 18. 10. -0. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.7 98.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 06/23/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 18.2% 9.9% 4.6% 0.9% 29.5% 71.5% 54.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 8.0% 5.4% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 12.5% Consensus: 0.7% 8.7% 5.1% 2.1% 0.4% 9.9% 23.8% 22.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 06/23/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##