* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932021 11/03/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 25 24 22 21 24 27 31 36 41 44 46 49 52 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 25 24 22 21 24 27 31 36 41 44 46 49 52 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 21 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 4 5 7 9 10 7 10 12 15 14 15 18 14 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 3 1 0 1 1 0 0 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 241 205 206 213 238 280 289 320 308 343 359 23 347 340 339 346 300 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.1 27.6 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.4 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 135 135 135 134 133 139 144 141 138 138 144 147 151 153 155 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -54.2 -53.5 -54.2 -53.4 -53.6 -52.9 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 69 70 69 67 69 71 73 71 72 72 71 65 63 62 67 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 13 14 13 13 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 42 34 26 22 19 15 23 10 -3 -14 -23 -24 -35 -50 -51 -27 -26 200 MB DIV 31 44 40 23 -17 -40 -24 -21 -9 9 23 57 72 68 78 115 110 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 0 LAND (KM) 171 210 239 258 275 326 417 465 571 693 803 832 805 785 753 680 559 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.7 9.2 9.3 9.3 8.9 8.4 8.3 8.4 9.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.1 86.6 87.1 87.5 87.9 88.7 89.6 90.7 92.2 94.1 96.1 98.0 99.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 5 4 5 7 9 10 10 9 10 11 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 4 4 3 7 7 16 14 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. 32. 33. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -12. -12. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 24. 27. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.5 86.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932021 INVEST 11/03/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 29.6% 16.0% 7.3% 2.1% 2.1% 1.2% 28.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 15.4% 5.3% 2.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 9.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932021 INVEST 11/03/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##