* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932021 08/10/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 46 52 61 67 71 78 81 83 84 81 78 74 69 64 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 46 52 61 67 71 78 81 83 84 81 78 74 69 64 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 37 40 44 49 56 63 69 72 69 64 57 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 21 24 29 25 26 23 20 14 18 15 14 19 15 10 10 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 -3 0 2 1 1 1 -1 0 -2 0 5 7 1 0 SHEAR DIR 1 6 9 20 20 37 19 6 353 21 36 57 76 73 76 81 154 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.3 26.5 26.1 25.3 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 155 155 154 150 151 153 151 148 145 137 128 124 117 105 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.9 -53.1 -53.6 -53.0 -53.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.3 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 5 6 4 6 5 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 86 85 84 82 83 84 80 83 80 82 81 77 73 68 63 60 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 13 14 16 17 18 21 25 28 31 33 34 35 35 34 32 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -58 -68 -59 -46 -49 -16 -4 6 7 15 26 53 66 84 113 118 200 MB DIV 180 161 132 139 149 120 109 97 123 91 90 57 20 33 10 10 29 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -7 -7 -8 -7 -7 -9 -19 -19 -3 0 0 2 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 449 435 420 408 402 424 466 495 551 617 584 645 749 876 1016 1191 1374 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 8 8 7 8 9 9 9 11 10 9 9 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 24 26 21 18 18 15 15 14 11 9 6 3 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. 34. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 30. 29. 27. 25. 21. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 22. 31. 37. 41. 48. 51. 53. 54. 51. 48. 45. 39. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 100.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932021 INVEST 08/10/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 152.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.96 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 11.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 13.2% 3.6% 2.2% 0.9% 6.0% 11.3% 12.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 12.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 2.0% 3.8% 4.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 34.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 14.0% 28.0% 21.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932021 INVEST 08/10/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##