* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932021 08/09/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 45 53 62 68 75 81 88 89 91 86 85 81 79 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 45 53 62 68 75 81 88 89 91 86 85 81 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 35 38 41 45 50 58 66 72 76 73 69 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 22 24 26 25 23 28 17 12 13 17 16 17 8 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 2 -1 2 0 -1 -2 2 0 0 0 7 7 1 1 SHEAR DIR 343 360 13 15 19 33 29 18 358 17 48 40 50 67 63 56 82 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.2 28.3 27.5 26.7 25.7 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 155 155 155 152 150 151 153 150 146 147 139 131 119 115 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 85 86 85 83 83 84 81 83 82 81 82 79 75 69 66 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 11 13 15 15 18 20 23 26 32 33 36 35 38 38 39 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -39 -60 -61 -58 -50 -33 -15 -11 -6 12 21 35 57 82 112 125 200 MB DIV 164 189 164 139 133 122 119 118 122 119 90 73 53 46 41 5 5 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -7 -7 -7 -7 -5 -11 -9 -18 -8 -3 -1 0 1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 448 456 466 443 421 406 443 467 516 584 604 599 675 785 915 1044 1159 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 9 9 8 9 11 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 19 25 28 22 18 16 15 15 13 11 8 8 4 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39. 40. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 9. 14. 20. 25. 32. 32. 33. 29. 29. 26. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 28. 37. 43. 50. 56. 63. 64. 66. 61. 60. 56. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 99.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932021 INVEST 08/09/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 157.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.99 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 3.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 5.2% 1.5% 0.8% 0.2% 3.5% 28.0% 25.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 0.3% 9.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% 9.3% 8.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 25.0% 13.0% 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 17.0% 33.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932021 INVEST 08/09/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##