* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932021 08/09/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 34 42 50 59 70 75 80 82 85 83 80 73 71 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 34 42 50 59 70 75 80 82 85 83 80 73 71 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 25 28 32 37 43 50 56 57 54 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 20 24 23 26 17 19 17 16 18 18 18 19 15 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 2 1 -2 4 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 -2 2 4 2 SHEAR DIR 329 336 356 12 12 18 31 16 354 329 11 49 58 62 76 59 70 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.6 26.4 25.9 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 152 154 155 154 152 153 151 152 156 152 148 141 128 123 115 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.9 -53.0 -54.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.0 -53.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.5 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 3 3 5 3 6 4 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 85 84 86 85 85 83 84 81 82 81 82 81 79 74 69 62 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 9 11 13 16 17 18 22 24 27 30 33 36 37 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -40 -43 -52 -65 -56 -66 -37 -30 7 10 23 22 48 69 104 119 200 MB DIV 121 160 189 171 149 151 140 119 79 124 91 81 36 36 37 0 16 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -8 -9 -4 -5 -1 -3 -6 -9 -19 -4 -1 0 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 474 460 466 474 475 471 485 470 453 443 483 507 481 572 716 914 1113 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.8 15.8 17.0 18.4 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.6 98.6 99.6 100.5 101.2 102.5 103.6 104.5 105.5 106.9 108.8 110.8 113.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 8 7 6 5 5 7 10 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 16 21 28 30 20 18 16 15 14 13 8 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 38. 41. 43. 44. 45. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 21. 24. 28. 30. 31. 31. 29. 24. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 22. 30. 39. 50. 55. 60. 62. 65. 63. 60. 53. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.6 97.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932021 INVEST 08/09/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 158.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.99 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 4.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 16.7% 21.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 5.6% 7.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 10.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 8.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932021 INVEST 08/09/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##