* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932021 08/09/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 28 35 44 53 64 72 77 82 87 89 91 86 85 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 28 35 44 53 64 72 77 82 87 89 91 86 85 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 22 24 27 31 36 44 52 60 66 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 21 20 20 23 20 16 11 15 15 10 9 12 12 14 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 2 2 4 2 0 4 0 1 -5 2 1 2 4 7 2 SHEAR DIR 357 337 331 335 345 10 3 24 11 351 355 24 53 64 64 80 69 SST (C) 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.7 29.2 28.8 28.4 28.8 27.3 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 156 154 155 156 156 154 154 151 151 157 153 149 153 137 129 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.8 -53.1 -54.2 -53.6 -54.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.0 -53.3 -52.3 -52.2 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 4 3 5 4 6 4 5 5 5 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 84 87 86 85 85 85 83 83 81 83 83 83 82 78 72 68 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 12 14 15 17 20 23 25 28 31 36 34 38 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -18 -29 -44 -38 -52 -50 -61 -39 -31 -12 -9 15 30 46 67 96 200 MB DIV 81 102 109 121 183 165 193 137 116 72 111 70 106 69 94 56 -7 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -4 -4 -6 -4 -2 1 0 -5 -6 -7 -1 -1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 526 491 474 469 459 466 483 510 532 559 601 629 711 682 729 780 847 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.4 13.5 13.8 14.4 15.4 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.5 96.6 97.6 98.5 99.4 101.0 102.3 103.5 104.5 105.7 107.3 109.2 111.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 7 7 5 5 7 9 11 11 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 15 16 18 25 30 22 20 16 16 20 13 9 12 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. 44. 47. 48. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 20. 23. 24. 26. 26. 28. 24. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 15. 24. 33. 44. 52. 57. 62. 67. 69. 71. 66. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.0 95.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932021 INVEST 08/09/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -3.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 4.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 2.3% 13.8% 23.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Consensus: 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 4.6% 8.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932021 INVEST 08/09/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##