* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932021 08/08/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 22 22 26 32 42 54 63 73 82 87 87 91 87 87 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 22 22 26 32 42 54 63 73 82 87 87 91 87 87 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 18 19 21 24 29 35 41 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 20 22 22 22 19 18 11 13 4 7 7 11 12 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 2 0 1 4 0 -3 0 1 -1 0 5 6 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 5 358 344 338 334 354 6 13 16 345 2 5 49 68 71 62 83 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.9 28.6 29.1 28.9 28.3 28.3 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 148 151 153 153 154 156 152 151 153 150 156 155 148 148 132 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 3 3 4 3 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 80 82 85 86 84 86 84 83 80 81 83 83 80 78 76 71 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 6 6 9 11 13 15 18 22 25 28 27 31 30 31 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -13 -17 -26 -39 -52 -54 -63 -53 -40 -21 -8 12 22 39 55 89 200 MB DIV 57 66 84 66 70 117 153 150 89 86 95 94 70 71 34 61 14 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -4 -2 0 -3 -1 0 1 -1 0 0 -4 -4 3 1 2 LAND (KM) 481 517 560 534 522 507 530 568 606 642 631 648 663 716 632 685 763 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.9 13.7 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.7 94.6 95.5 96.3 97.2 98.8 100.4 101.7 102.8 104.0 105.4 107.1 109.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 7 8 10 11 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 9 11 12 14 20 30 26 20 17 15 27 14 9 8 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 38. 41. 43. 46. 48. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 21. 24. 25. 21. 24. 20. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 6. 12. 22. 34. 43. 53. 62. 67. 67. 71. 67. 67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.3 93.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932021 INVEST 08/08/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.02 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -0.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 8.2% 28.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 2.7% 9.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932021 INVEST 08/08/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##