* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932021 06/13/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 17 17 18 23 29 36 44 50 54 57 59 61 62 63 66 V (KT) LAND 20 18 18 21 22 29 35 42 51 57 60 63 66 46 34 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 18 18 20 22 26 27 28 29 32 35 39 43 35 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 8 13 10 11 12 11 7 7 9 11 12 12 15 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -2 -4 -3 0 -1 2 -2 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 108 78 70 68 69 84 61 54 65 48 53 53 47 72 68 77 78 SST (C) 29.6 29.3 28.8 28.7 28.7 29.3 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.5 28.7 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 150 148 148 154 160 159 159 159 159 159 156 149 142 142 141 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 7 8 6 7 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 8 7 700-500 MB RH 74 78 77 77 76 80 86 86 87 86 87 85 85 83 82 80 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 44 57 59 62 66 70 78 85 98 95 107 103 102 98 57 65 200 MB DIV 61 46 16 20 30 76 73 60 100 100 78 92 83 63 71 23 46 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 78 18 -31 -27 -15 31 83 85 90 102 100 71 15 -47 -120 -170 -144 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.1 16.1 15.8 15.3 15.1 14.9 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.9 96.6 96.2 95.8 95.5 95.1 95.1 95.6 96.3 97.0 97.5 97.7 97.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 2 3 4 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 13 12 13 19 23 21 20 19 20 21 18 12 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 28. 33. 36. 39. 42. 45. 47. 49. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 3. 9. 16. 24. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. 42. 43. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.1 96.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932021 INVEST 06/13/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 6.4% 3.6% 1.6% 0.3% 4.8% 4.0% 15.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 2.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 1.6% 1.3% 5.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932021 INVEST 06/13/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##