* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932021 06/12/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 22 22 25 29 35 41 46 48 51 52 54 56 59 62 V (KT) LAND 25 24 21 23 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 3 1 6 11 10 7 5 9 7 11 8 8 12 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -5 -4 -2 4 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 212 173 156 138 167 3 58 67 63 21 30 32 46 79 105 103 85 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.0 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 153 147 143 142 142 143 145 146 143 141 140 142 143 145 150 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 8 7 7 6 7 5 6 5 7 6 7 5 7 700-500 MB RH 70 73 76 79 78 78 82 86 83 86 84 86 84 84 81 82 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 54 52 52 55 59 82 75 84 95 111 125 131 113 98 102 75 200 MB DIV 59 70 80 62 46 23 45 82 88 79 93 76 73 68 61 90 40 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -3 -1 -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -8 LAND (KM) 142 71 -13 -64 -86 -63 -56 -44 -43 -65 -98 -113 -120 -139 -158 -84 43 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.2 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.4 97.1 96.7 96.3 96.0 95.4 95.1 95.1 95.4 96.0 96.8 97.2 97.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 5 3 2 1 1 2 4 3 1 1 3 5 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 15 11 9 10 10 10 11 10 9 9 8 9 9 11 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. 35. 37. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -3. 0. 4. 10. 16. 21. 23. 26. 27. 29. 31. 34. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.6 97.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932021 INVEST 06/12/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.86 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.81 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.2% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 14.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 10.7% 8.7% 3.9% 0.8% 12.2% 3.9% 11.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 10.2% 8.9% 1.3% 0.3% 9.6% 6.3% 3.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932021 INVEST 06/12/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##