* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932021 06/12/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 21 21 23 25 29 35 39 42 45 50 54 58 62 67 V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 21 21 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 10 9 5 2 7 11 5 2 5 3 0 2 5 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 -2 -1 -1 -4 -2 -5 -5 -6 -4 -4 -3 4 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 149 146 152 153 152 251 312 356 29 323 238 296 76 7 177 165 162 SST (C) 30.4 30.2 29.8 29.2 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 162 155 146 143 143 144 144 145 145 145 144 145 146 146 144 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 8 6 8 6 8 5 7 5 7 5 7 5 8 700-500 MB RH 72 74 76 75 78 80 81 82 82 82 80 79 77 76 77 72 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 7 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 43 49 46 51 33 36 56 71 76 91 98 107 103 74 40 34 200 MB DIV 48 57 56 48 67 41 32 31 69 51 62 55 57 64 49 63 65 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 184 101 54 21 -39 -102 -105 -113 -91 -89 -84 -138 -142 -93 -64 -34 -92 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.4 17.4 17.5 17.4 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.7 96.1 95.6 95.0 94.6 94.0 93.9 94.0 94.0 94.2 94.8 95.5 96.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 2 0 2 1 2 3 4 2 2 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 22 19 11 12 12 8 4 4 7 4 10 10 11 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -1. -0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 4. 10. 14. 17. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 96.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932021 INVEST 06/12/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.59 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 27.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.76 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.5% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 17.5% 16.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 7.8% 4.2% 1.8% 0.4% 15.5% 35.4% 30.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% Consensus: 0.2% 9.7% 7.2% 0.6% 0.1% 11.0% 17.2% 10.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932021 INVEST 06/12/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##