* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932021 06/11/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 20 20 20 23 24 30 34 36 40 44 48 51 57 63 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 20 20 20 24 26 26 32 35 39 34 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 21 25 26 26 30 30 30 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 10 6 3 4 11 16 9 10 5 8 7 10 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 0 0 -2 -5 -5 -1 -4 -2 -5 -3 -5 -3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 194 175 172 168 176 238 278 287 331 327 329 270 313 321 331 308 288 SST (C) 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.2 29.9 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 29.1 29.5 29.6 29.0 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 167 169 167 163 146 145 146 148 152 156 157 152 143 141 140 141 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.4 -54.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 6 7 6 8 7 8 6 8 6 7 5 8 6 700-500 MB RH 70 72 74 75 79 81 84 82 82 81 79 79 79 79 78 79 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 8 8 5 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 31 41 41 49 45 38 25 42 50 54 80 91 100 95 97 69 200 MB DIV 38 25 24 55 60 82 62 56 21 34 40 75 50 37 35 40 38 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 1 0 4 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 334 268 192 126 86 -52 -105 -72 -11 38 42 48 -31 -107 -176 -190 -184 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.2 16.5 17.3 17.6 18.1 18.7 19.0 19.2 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.7 97.1 96.5 95.9 95.3 94.5 93.9 93.9 94.3 94.5 94.9 95.4 96.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 6 3 2 4 2 2 3 4 3 2 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 25 24 24 11 3 13 13 15 18 19 14 9 8 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 35. 38. 40. 42. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -2. -1. 5. 9. 11. 15. 19. 23. 26. 32. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 97.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932021 INVEST 06/11/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.65 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.21 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.76 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.3% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 17.4% 16.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 3.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 5.6% 15.3% 13.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 8.0% 6.4% 0.2% 0.0% 7.7% 10.6% 4.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932021 INVEST 06/11/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##