* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932021 06/11/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 22 26 29 34 38 40 43 47 51 55 59 64 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 21 25 26 26 32 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 21 25 26 26 31 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 8 9 7 4 7 11 9 11 9 7 5 8 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 0 -1 -4 -5 -3 -5 -1 -1 -4 0 -3 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 217 216 211 194 188 180 203 255 311 327 318 341 332 7 6 346 320 SST (C) 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.5 29.0 28.5 28.7 29.4 30.1 29.8 28.4 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 167 170 171 170 153 147 148 156 163 160 146 138 138 139 140 138 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 9 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 71 73 76 77 80 82 83 80 79 81 80 78 78 77 77 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 5 4 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 32 31 38 41 42 37 40 41 38 63 63 81 87 99 104 99 200 MB DIV 49 42 30 41 46 52 70 52 62 10 33 41 41 38 51 55 59 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 367 316 241 164 78 -25 -101 -33 -15 37 19 -57 -146 -232 -141 -84 -94 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.3 15.0 16.3 17.3 17.9 18.4 19.1 19.4 19.5 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.3 97.9 97.4 96.8 96.2 95.2 94.6 94.5 94.9 95.4 96.0 96.9 97.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 8 7 5 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 27 26 24 15 3 13 16 22 19 9 5 4 4 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 19. 26. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. 42. 44. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 1. 4. 9. 13. 15. 18. 22. 26. 30. 34. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 98.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932021 INVEST 06/11/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.94 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.63 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.9% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% 17.7% 16.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 15.5% 7.2% 3.9% 0.9% 19.2% 27.3% 22.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% Consensus: 0.6% 12.8% 8.6% 1.3% 0.3% 12.3% 14.7% 7.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932021 INVEST 06/11/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##