* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932021 06/11/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 34 36 38 38 39 40 43 47 49 51 53 54 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 31 33 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 30 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 12 14 14 14 14 12 9 15 10 12 7 11 11 7 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -4 -6 -4 -6 -1 -2 1 3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 225 216 216 210 204 203 202 203 239 258 236 218 195 185 182 131 136 SST (C) 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.8 30.8 29.2 28.3 28.7 27.9 27.5 28.1 27.1 27.0 27.4 29.0 27.0 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 169 170 170 156 146 149 141 137 144 134 133 138 155 134 126 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.1 -53.3 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 8 6 8 6 8 6 8 5 7 3 3 700-500 MB RH 69 72 74 73 76 79 81 86 83 80 79 75 71 67 60 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 30 40 36 43 45 51 45 48 58 52 58 64 67 57 41 63 200 MB DIV 46 50 46 20 46 45 75 56 100 26 49 38 44 36 23 26 22 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 1 0 0 2 -1 6 4 11 14 LAND (KM) 337 280 229 168 93 -51 -152 -75 -95 -152 -245 -307 -261 -94 74 283 390 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.5 15.1 16.3 17.7 18.7 19.3 19.9 20.3 20.6 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.9 98.8 98.5 98.2 97.7 97.0 96.6 96.6 97.2 98.2 99.5 101.0 102.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 7 7 7 6 4 5 6 7 8 7 9 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 27 28 27 15 9 11 6 5 3 2 2 3 10 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 4. 12. 19. 26. 30. 32. 35. 36. 37. 39. 41. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 15. 18. 22. 24. 26. 28. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 98.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932021 INVEST 06/11/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.95 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.43 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.1% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 17.5% 15.6% 0.0% Logistic: 11.8% 44.0% 25.6% 16.1% 8.8% 39.3% 58.5% 56.9% Bayesian: 0.9% 10.6% 2.7% 0.7% 0.5% 3.8% 3.5% 3.2% Consensus: 4.2% 26.3% 15.8% 5.6% 3.1% 20.2% 25.9% 20.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932021 INVEST 06/11/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##