* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932020 09/20/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 47 55 63 66 68 69 70 68 64 62 59 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 47 55 63 66 68 69 70 68 64 62 59 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 38 40 41 42 43 42 41 38 36 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 9 8 12 14 11 2 1 6 10 12 15 16 18 17 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 -1 -2 0 1 1 0 0 -2 -4 -1 -3 -1 1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 36 31 27 57 47 34 45 23 355 278 267 256 252 271 270 290 298 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.3 29.7 29.1 28.3 27.9 27.6 26.8 26.0 25.4 24.7 24.1 25.1 25.5 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 157 161 156 148 144 140 132 124 117 110 103 113 116 121 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 73 72 73 74 71 71 65 63 61 56 52 48 43 37 35 35 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 17 19 20 19 20 22 24 25 25 25 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 19 10 20 34 36 44 38 27 19 25 37 42 53 60 68 58 65 200 MB DIV 62 50 61 64 52 53 48 14 2 -4 -3 2 7 3 -3 -15 -8 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -4 -3 -12 -8 -6 4 4 9 6 9 12 9 13 10 4 LAND (KM) 516 563 597 637 686 722 646 660 686 818 958 1133 1305 1506 1700 1844 1932 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.5 16.6 18.1 19.6 20.7 21.4 21.6 21.7 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.7 108.4 109.2 110.0 111.7 113.5 115.4 117.3 119.4 121.6 124.0 125.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 8 8 11 11 11 10 11 11 10 9 9 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 13 15 16 18 11 8 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 24. 28. 30. 32. 32. 31. 31. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 9. 13. 14. 15. 17. 18. 18. 16. 15. 14. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 22. 30. 38. 41. 43. 44. 45. 43. 39. 37. 34. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 106.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 09/20/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.47 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.47 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.4% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 19.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 12.3% 3.3% 2.1% 0.4% 5.8% 8.6% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 12.3% 8.0% 0.7% 0.1% 8.2% 9.5% 1.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 10.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 09/20/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##