* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932020 09/20/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 49 61 69 75 76 78 77 75 73 73 73 73 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 49 61 69 75 76 78 77 75 73 73 73 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 34 39 46 51 54 54 54 53 51 50 50 51 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 4 7 7 6 4 2 4 5 6 7 9 6 10 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 0 0 -1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 -1 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 50 50 31 38 42 13 23 28 38 285 246 268 270 307 315 313 334 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.5 30.0 28.5 28.0 27.6 26.6 26.1 25.7 25.7 25.8 26.5 26.8 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 156 160 166 150 145 140 130 125 120 119 120 126 129 126 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -51.3 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 76 74 74 73 72 69 64 61 58 55 49 45 39 37 38 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 13 13 14 17 20 22 23 23 25 25 25 26 27 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 17 19 21 29 43 45 54 39 35 41 45 45 55 61 60 43 42 200 MB DIV 86 74 66 66 68 39 62 23 8 -12 5 -7 1 -10 20 21 38 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 -3 -5 -5 -2 0 0 5 8 6 9 5 4 2 2 LAND (KM) 390 424 453 472 514 620 569 640 693 847 1004 1191 1379 1548 1661 1703 1672 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.3 17.3 18.5 19.7 20.7 21.2 21.3 21.0 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.1 106.9 107.7 108.6 110.6 112.8 115.2 117.4 119.6 121.9 124.1 126.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 8 7 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 17 16 16 23 15 9 7 3 0 0 0 0 2 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 30. 32. 33. 33. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 18. 19. 20. 19. 18. 17. 17. 15. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 24. 36. 44. 50. 51. 53. 52. 50. 48. 48. 48. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.4 105.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 09/20/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.62 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.54 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -6.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.84 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.1% 24.3% 0.0% 0.0% 22.2% 22.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 16.4% 6.7% 4.0% 0.6% 13.6% 17.8% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 0.6% 15.6% 10.8% 1.4% 0.2% 12.0% 13.6% 1.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 15.0% 16.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 09/20/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##