* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932020 08/15/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 27 25 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 27 25 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 9 11 16 24 27 30 36 39 42 37 21 21 17 32 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 6 4 2 7 6 4 -1 0 -1 0 0 5 1 2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 298 288 261 255 241 233 235 245 227 219 219 225 232 233 216 249 254 SST (C) 27.5 26.6 25.8 25.4 24.5 22.2 21.3 20.7 20.1 19.6 18.8 17.3 14.0 17.8 19.4 17.0 14.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 132 124 120 111 87 76 70 63 62 61 61 61 61 62 63 63 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -50.5 -50.7 -51.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 4 0 4 700-500 MB RH 65 62 60 57 56 52 46 42 40 38 36 36 36 35 38 39 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 33 20 16 2 11 3 -27 -53 -77 -62 -70 -42 -16 -2 33 8 200 MB DIV 27 44 31 38 40 40 17 24 29 22 -8 2 -15 17 29 61 39 700-850 TADV -11 -14 -2 -1 -2 4 17 7 19 -2 -41 -67 -41 -24 -15 10 0 LAND (KM) 265 276 297 383 476 710 926 921 875 730 521 282 58 -152 -380 -619 -851 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.9 22.7 23.5 24.3 25.8 27.4 29.1 31.4 34.1 36.3 37.6 38.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.5 114.1 115.8 117.8 121.8 125.2 127.6 129.3 129.4 128.3 126.1 123.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 17 19 20 19 15 14 14 13 11 11 10 9 13 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 8. 3. -2. -6. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -11. -22. -32. -38. -39. -40. -41. -49. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -12. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -6. -16. -28. -39. -48. -61. -70. -84. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.9 111.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 08/15/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.13 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 08/15/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##