* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932020 08/14/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 29 28 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 29 28 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 11 13 23 30 32 32 33 28 24 20 18 16 16 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 1 1 3 4 0 0 0 3 3 4 0 0 4 2 SHEAR DIR 289 282 291 269 263 234 234 245 246 246 237 219 213 193 204 203 202 SST (C) 28.3 27.5 26.6 25.7 25.2 23.1 22.2 22.0 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.9 23.3 24.4 24.7 25.8 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 140 131 123 118 96 86 82 80 82 85 91 96 107 111 122 127 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -51.4 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 -51.0 -51.4 -51.6 -52.4 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 65 63 63 60 55 51 46 44 45 41 38 31 30 27 27 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 32 42 19 14 14 14 21 26 39 19 39 33 51 52 65 58 200 MB DIV 34 44 50 50 62 29 26 3 7 -8 -3 -24 6 -7 7 8 -17 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -18 -4 -3 1 11 4 5 -13 -4 -18 0 -3 4 0 2 LAND (KM) 372 314 345 381 443 632 901 1153 1300 1424 1591 1799 2003 1818 1639 1469 1347 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.5 21.2 21.9 22.7 24.1 25.0 25.6 25.5 25.4 24.7 23.6 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.6 112.8 114.3 116.0 119.8 123.5 126.4 128.8 130.6 132.2 133.9 135.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 17 18 18 15 12 10 7 9 10 12 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 15. 12. 10. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -2. -10. -18. -24. -26. -26. -25. -25. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -3. -10. -17. -22. -27. -32. -35. -38. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.6 110.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 08/14/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.45 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.42 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.18 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.5% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 08/14/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##